Ok, you have now understood the principles of backing & laying. A simple enough task which allows you to back at one price and lay at a lower price – or vice-versa. This straightforward exercise is still, however, akin to gambling. You back the favourite, hope they score first and lay them as their odds decrease. You have won your bet. Trading, rather than pure punting, though, gives you the opportunity to determine how much profit you want to make, or conversely, how much you are prepared to lose. In trading terminology we call this an exit point. This subject is covered in greater detail in other articles in this site`s resource library.
Trading successfully relies on careful planning, particularly on your predetermined entry & exit points. At tradingfootball.eu we have developed a number of strategies (a key component of how to plan a trade) that helps in fixing precisely these entry & exit points. The basis of these strategies contain what we call the insurance principle. This, however, is just one appoach to trading sports markets, albeit one which adheres foremost to bank protection.
But what of other ways in which to trade? There are techniques (plans if you like) which are designed to achieve greater potential profit but by their nature are more risky. Other techniques are employed only during the game – this is called In-Play trading – or trading can be done pre kick off or even only during the half time interval.
PRE KICK OFF & HALF TIME
Let`s look at the latter two techniques. Both are considerably less risky than any other form of trading strategy since the ball effectively is dead. A goal cannot be scored pre kick off or at half time therefore odds cannot dramatically rise or fall. But odds can move in one direction or the other even if only a few ticks (the term given to odds increments: 2.02 > 2.04 would be described as a one tick increase in price. 1.97 < 1.90 is a seven tick decrease in price. 6.4 > 7.0 is a three tick increase).
If the tick movement pre kick off or at halftime is minimal then to make decent profits requires a sizeable investment. See the chart below for the percentage profit gained according to the various odds ranges
Identifying trends, i.e which way the market is expected to move, is not that easy. Team news can have an effect. Look out for Cup games, Europa league matches when managers can sometimes elect to field a weakened line-up; this will see the odds drift. Look out for large volumes of money entering the market which has the effect of manipulating the prices.
Half time interval can often see a movement of odds on the current score where the price will drift a tick or two then come back to its original price during this 15 minute period. It is known as the “bounce effect”. A video which shows this quite clearly is available in the videos section of the members` area
Scalping is a technique which, if mastered correctly, can produce dividends. If your pre match strategy requires goals to be scored then you are going to be vulnerable if it is a low scoring match. So rather than simply backing low scores as a way out of trouble, scalping can reduce your liabilities.
#1. You have backed 1-1 / 1-2 / 1-3 for a total liability of £25
#2. To reduce your liability let`s scalp the 0-0 scoreline. BACK @ 11.5 for £50 and LAY @ 11.0 for £50
#3. This is the result. No liability left on 0-0
That is the theory of scalping. In practice it requires precise timing of your entry point – a goal kick, play stoppped for an injury, a defensive substitution perhaps are all moments when 0-0 odds can drop.
Another important point to note is only scalp when the odds are moving. Static odds mean you can be in the market too long – long enough for a goal to be scored!
Do odds move more quickly or slowly at different times during a game?
And do certain scorelines or markets move more quickly than others?
Yes they do.
Monitor diligently the markets and see when these movements occur.
For example, the first ten minutes of a game can see the Under 2.5 odds drop by 15- 20 ticks provided no goals have been scored. The next fifteen minutes will see the odds decrease more slowly and then pick up again around 25-30mins.
65-70mins will see the rate of odds movement increase to nearly double the rate of any other periods of the game; this is typically the time when the layers & backers are looking to exit their trades
What odds to back or lay at?
Not so much a tecnique but a small tip. Most traders place their orders at odds with round numbers – 4.0...2.0....1.75....1.5, etc. Place your orders a tick above or below where there will be less money and subsequently you will have a better chance of your bet being matched more quickly.
LAY the team who are 2-0 up
You will often see odds of 1.20 or less to LAY so it is a cheap bet with high reward potential
Don`t do this blindly but select matches carefully.
Is the favourite the away team?
What time of the match is it 2-0 or 0-2? You are only looking for the losing team to score one goal in reply which will see the odds on the winning team drift
TEAM A are 2-0 up by Halftime...............LAY @ 1.20 £100
TEAM B score in 55min............................BACK Team A @ 1.45 £83*
Result: £17 hedged green profit
You can of course decide not to equalise the green but simply take out your red liability
by BACKING TEAM A @ 1.45 £100.........this leaves you £25 green on TEAM A and scratch on TEAM B
Say it`s 0-0 at Halftime. You are watching the game or have found statistics that indicate a goal is likely. You decide to lay the draw (or 0-0). The odds will be around 2.74. You place your lay bet for £10 leaving you a liability of £17.40 should the final result be a draw.
An alternative technique in this scenario is to drip lay the selection at decreasing incremental odds.
Below is a screenshot of such an example
If a goal is scored around 60mins your first lay bet @ 2.20 will have been matched giving you a £5 profit. If the first goal is scored around 70mins you first two lay bets will pay out a profit of £10….....if a goal is scored in the 90+ min you have won all four lay bets for a total of £25.
If, however, the final score is 0-0 you lose all your lay bets which total £14.60