Wednesday, 13 July 2011 13:45
2-1 scoreline
THE 2-1 SCORELINE
Some facts and stats about what we feel is the best scoreline to back for almost any league with decent liquidity.
www.soccerstats.com
English Premier
Frequent scores 2010-2011
Score Matches %
1 - 1 52 13.68%
2 - 1 40 10.53%
1 - 0 40 10.53%
Frequent scores 2009-2010
Score Matches %
2 - 1 42 11.05%
1 - 1 39 10.26%
2 - 0 34 8.95%
Frequent scores 2008-2009
Score Matches %
1 - 0 42 11.05%
0 - 0 42 11.05%
2 - 1 36 9.47%
1 - 1 34 8.95%
So let’s apply this to same Spain too from last 2 seasons.
Frequent scores 2010-2011
Score Matches %
1 - 0 48 12.63%
2 - 0 37 9.74%
1 - 1 35 9.21%
2 - 1 34 8.95%
Frequent scores 2009-2010
Score Matches %
1 - 1 45 11.84%
1 - 0 44 11.58%
2 - 1 35 9.21%
So as we can see the 2-1 is the second most regular scoreline consistently in the Premier and in Spain, (good chance you will find the same in Germany too).
So what? How can we use this information?
One of the first strategies we introduced was the AA, the Adster Aperitif which was a simple back of 0-0 and 2-1 to the fave. We then tweaked it to also cover the 2-2, stakes % being 20% on 0-0 and 2-2 and 100% on 2-1 OR in layman’s terms, £5 on 0-0, £25 on 2-1, £5 on 2-2.
The beauty of covering the 2-1 is a score of 1-1 will see the 2-1 steam in. So therefore we have BOTH two of the most common scores covered effectively by backing the 2-1.…….
Data backs this up
Using data from the previous season if we backed the 2-1 at say odds of 10s at kick off or 10 minutes in provided a goal is scored before 60 minutes that 2-1 price will not be higher than what you backed it at.
Better than that IF the dog scores first to make it 0-1 the market will expect the favourite to come back so a goal in the first half to the dog will see the 2-1 price steam from 10s to anything as low as 7s.
So really a goal to either side HAS to see the 2-1 steam. Marvellous! The only time this won’t happen is if there is a sending off early………
Vert
One of our members Vert does very well from backing the 2-1 and 2-2 around 10-20 mins in where the 2-1 price will be 12s minimum. He will look at the stats, shots on target etc before jumping in. Often he will even back 1-2 to the dog as the price is so much higher. IF the game is 0-0 at HT he will red up for a small loss or leave some green on the 2-1 in case of second half goals.
Another massive plus for the 2-1 is in the research we have done for the correct games the 2-1 will be no higher than 24s at HT. So you’ve backed at 12s and it’s 24s at HT, so not such a massive drift like say on the 2-2 or 3-0/3-1s!
August season
We can certainly apply Vert’s principal here with the 2-1 and 2-2. But considering how many goals are scored in the second half a strategy I indeed intend to use is jumping in 15-20 mins in and backing 2-1 at least at 12s PLUS the 2-2. IF it’s 0-0 at HT will remain in the trade and if there is still no goal at 65 mins will look to LAY the 0-0, (SHS on 0-0). By doing this a late goal will mean no loss and the only loss will be double via the game ending 0-0.……….
Summary
The 2-1 back has been off our radar for some time although we know many members still use it. Applied correctly for the new season when the criteria is correct will see our banks grow. The stats back this up.
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