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Lay the Draw with 0-0 cover
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TOPIC: Lay the Draw with 0-0 cover

Lay the Draw with 0-0 cover 2 years, 3 months ago #208

  • raylin
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Laying the draw as been one of my favorite trading systems but sometimes I come unstuck with no goals after 60 minutes and having to trade out for a loss
So I have devised a new system that will eliminate this problem.
Here goes
Find a game that the match odds for the draw is between 3.5 and 3.6 with plenty of liquidity eg Liverpool Arsenal game
The 0-0 in the correct score market should be between 12.5 and 14
Lay the draw for £100 this was done early morning on the Liverpool game
Ie Team A Green =£100
Team B Green =£100
Draw Red =£250
Just before the game put a £50 bet on the 0-0 say at 13.5
And also a £20 bet on the 1-1 say at 8.4 (cover bet)
10 minute into the game trade out the 0-0 at hopefully 3 points profit so green on the £150 on the 0-0
Also trade out the 1-1 for hopefully at the same price of 8.2

We now back the draw for an amount to give us a liability £100 on the draw
I find that layers of the draw can push the draw price up so we could end up getting out at the original price of 3.5 even after 10 minutes
If we get out at 3.5 on the draw we would have to bet £60 to bring our liability down to £100 on the draw
Ie Team A =green £40
Team B =green £40
Draw Red £100
Green 0-0 =£150
We then wait for the a goal to be scored
If a goal is scored before half time £15 to £20 profit should be obtained if the dog doesn't score
If the score is 0-0 at half time I would equalise my loss on the match odds and green up on the 0-0 at odds of between 3.5 and 4.5 we would be looking at an overall profit on the game of between £30 to £40
Laying the draw is quite a good trading system but with the liability of £100 you can possible make £15 to £20 if a goal is scored
Laying the draw using the 0-0 cover for the same liability you could end up with return of between £30 to £40 especially if no goals are scored in the first half or even if the result is 0-0 full time

If a goal is scored within the first 10 minutes we can normally trade out for a minimal loss of £20-£30( although I have seen methods that could reduce this further) using the the 1-1 score if the dog scores or part of the £100 pound of the trading out at say 5.2 on the draw
Note a goal is scored in the first 10 minutes of matches 1 in every 5 games
Any comment negative or positive will be encouraged

Re: Lay the Draw with 0-0 cover 2 years, 3 months ago #213

  • adster
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  • Posts: 350
  • Karma: 0
Thanks for this ray. Enjoy seeing these threads like this as we're sharing and thinking of new strats which is beneficial to us all.

When I started trading 7 years ago LTD was the first strat used. Few years back the draw used to drift out more when a goal was scored, not so much now. What have noticed when a goal is scored the initial price on the draw always comes back higher so if you're quick enough you can get on before it drops and settles.

Downside of the below, a goal is scored early you lose £50 straight away so you're fighting an uphill battle, plus the draw won't shift too much if the goal is so early so you're in trouble. Get past 15 mins and sure you then have some cover for the dangerous 0-0.

Still believe there is more advantage LTD second half as the price and liability are so much lower. Plus a goal, (later the better) sees the draw drift out whoever scores it.

Other views would be interesting.




raylin wrote:
Laying the draw as been one of my favorite trading systems but sometimes I come unstuck with no goals after 60 minutes and having to trade out for a loss
So I have devised a new system that will eliminate this problem.
Here goes
Find a game that the match odds for the draw is between 3.5 and 3.6 with plenty of liquidity eg Liverpool Arsenal game
The 0-0 in the correct score market should be between 12.5 and 14
Lay the draw for £100 this was done early morning on the Liverpool game
Ie Team A Green =£100
Team B Green =£100
Draw Red =£250
Just before the game put a £50 bet on the 0-0 say at 13.5
And also a £20 bet on the 1-1 say at 8.4 (cover bet)
10 minute into the game trade out the 0-0 at hopefully 3 points profit so green on the £150 on the 0-0
Also trade out the 1-1 for hopefully at the same price of 8.2

We now back the draw for an amount to give us a liability £100 on the draw
I find that layers of the draw can push the draw price up so we could end up getting out at the original price of 3.5 even after 10 minutes
If we get out at 3.5 on the draw we would have to bet £60 to bring our liability down to £100 on the draw
Ie Team A =green £40
Team B =green £40
Draw Red £100
Green 0-0 =£150
We then wait for the a goal to be scored
If a goal is scored before half time £15 to £20 profit should be obtained if the dog doesn't score
If the score is 0-0 at half time I would equalise my loss on the match odds and green up on the 0-0 at odds of between 3.5 and 4.5 we would be looking at an overall profit on the game of between £30 to £40
Laying the draw is quite a good trading system but with the liability of £100 you can possible make £15 to £20 if a goal is scored
Laying the draw using the 0-0 cover for the same liability you could end up with return of between £30 to £40 especially if no goals are scored in the first half or even if the result is 0-0 full time

If a goal is scored within the first 10 minutes we can normally trade out for a minimal loss of £20-£30( although I have seen methods that could reduce this further) using the the 1-1 score if the dog scores or part of the £100 pound of the trading out at say 5.2 on the draw
Note a goal is scored in the first 10 minutes of matches 1 in every 5 games
Any comment negative or positive will be encouraged

Re: Lay the Draw with 0-0 cover 2 years, 3 months ago #216

adster wrote:
plus the draw won't shift too much if the goal is so early so you're in trouble.


How about looking for a game which should be fairly evenly matched and with few goals expected so the draw price should shift a reasonable amount with any goal. Could you then LTD pre match, looking to green up as soon as there's a goal with 0-0 backed to cover the draw liability so you would scratch on a goalless game?

Re: Lay the Draw with 0-0 cover 2 years, 3 months ago #217

  • adster
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  • Posts: 350
  • Karma: 0
Unfortunately the more even the sides the lower the draw is at KO and the less it will drift if a goal first half is scored. It's games with a heavy fave that sees the draw drift a lot if the fave scores first. But the downside is with a heavy fave the draw is 4s or more at KO.





Eboractos wrote:
adster wrote:
plus the draw won't shift too much if the goal is so early so you're in trouble.


How about looking for a game which should be fairly evenly matched and with few goals expected so the draw price should shift a reasonable amount with any goal. Could you then LTD pre match, looking to green up as soon as there's a goal with 0-0 backed to cover the draw liability so you would scratch on a goalless game?

Re: Lay the Draw with 0-0 cover 2 years, 3 months ago #231

  • raylin
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  • Expert Boarder
  • Posts: 99
  • Karma: 6
Thanks for the reply
Yes the goal in the first 10 minutes could be a problem.Although I have devised a couple of other strategies to cover that outcome.
As its says in a number of videos you have to expect losses so if I can keep losses down to £20 to £30 pound one in every five games I could hit a biggy ie £80 occasionally it should more than compensate.
If you want I will put a couple of selections on the message board and try to run with it live although I will be very selective with my trades

Maybe use the drip feed method at half time Ie 2.6 lay the draw £10 then £10 on 2.0 and £20 on 1.5 .That should leave me about £10 to pay for the commission on £150 if it ends up at 0-0 at full time.Could realize £80 if a late goal is scored

Re: Lay the Draw with 0-0 cover 2 years, 3 months ago #232

  • adster
  • OFFLINE
  • Platinum Boarder
  • Posts: 350
  • Karma: 0
Sure ray, why not, feel free to post selections here and we can see how they do. If you want to shout them out in chat too go for it.


raylin wrote:
Thanks for the reply
Yes the goal in the first 10 minutes could be a problem.Although I have devised a couple of other strategies to cover that outcome.
As its says in a number of videos you have to expect losses so if I can keep losses down to £20 to £30 pound one in every five games I could hit a biggy ie £80 occasionally it should more than compensate.
If you want I will put a couple of selections on the message board and try to run with it live although I will be very selective with my trades

Maybe use the drip feed method at half time Ie 2.6 lay the draw £10 then £10 on 2.0 and £20 on 1.5 .That should leave me about £10 to pay for the commission on £150 if it ends up at 0-0 at full time.Could realize £80 if a late goal is scored
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