Draw Inflation Overview

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How it works

 

The majority of football models are based on the poisson distribution and so is the DI tool - a heavily modified poisson model which allows for teams correlation and leagues specific corrections.
Historically poisson models have been predicting draw outcomes to occur less often and the error has been around 9~10%, therefrom the draw inflation - inflating/increasing the probability of draws and of course draw scores 0-0/1-1 etc.

Tutorial videos can be found here....

What is too high/low then?

That's relative. Anything between 5-15% is alright, but if you see an inflation around or below 0% that would be low.  Respectively an inflation above 17% would be high.  In some Italian B games, however, draw inflations have been as high as 200%, those games in which the draw trades around 1.50 at KO smiley
Please avoid Italian games with high DI close to end of season.

  1. Checking that box adds your registered email to the DI mail list, you will receive notifications for games that meet the above criteria (DI<0% or DI>17% and matched amount in Match Odds > £30000)
  2. Apply various filters, games that do not qualify will not be displayed
  3. Hover over team names for extra info
  4. Betfair prices, hover over any price for a Betfair inline graph and previous price, click to go to the relevant market on Betfair website
  5. Pinnacle prices, hover for previous prices
  6. Prices flash in red when changed
  7. Current draw inflation percentage, orange colour when value is too high or low, hover for a DI% movement graph

 

* Note:  There may be price update issues when using IE. For best viewing experience we recommend:  Firefox  Chrome  Opera  Safari

 

What to do when we spot a low inflation?

The inflation depends on match odds and total goals so there are a number of scenarios, mostly covered with the following:

  •  match odds remain the same, u2.5 drifts;
  •  draw steams, dog drifts, u2.5 stays the same;
  •  draw steams, faves drift, u2.5 steams;
  •  draw remains the same, dog drifts, u2.5 drifts.

A trade that would win in most cases with low inflation, (0% or less) - back the draw and lay the dog.

For high inflations, (17% or more) we do the opposite - lay draw and back dog.

 

Big advantages of the DI tool:

  • We're trading the match odds so we get matched fast.
  • Liquidity is better in match odds than any other market.
  • More opportunities/trades present themselves in these markets.

 

We would recommend the following:

 

  • Derbies - the draw is usually backed there and DI% gets high, better avoid or back the draw early and green-up on the day of the game.
  • Small stakes initially until you are confident with the tool – we don’t want you losing money; Best not to trade games with UNDER £30k in the match odds. You'll end up taking poor prices and not getting matched at the correct ones leaving a loss.
  • IF backing the draw, (ie, if DI is under 0%) back it at current lay price and vice versa, lay the underdog at the current back price;
  • For newer members we would advise the following … Ask for both prices and don’t take the ones on offer. Once one has been matched you can then take the available price on the other trade. By doing it this way, you won’t get stung if the market moves quickly, and you can still make a small profit;
  • Watch the DI videos and read the Help page, then repeat again if necessary.
     
  • Team news can play a big part in moving odds. These are usually announced 60-90 mins before KO. Please bare this in mind. We would recommend avoiding games with Real Madrid and Barcelona as these games are often incorrect in most markets.

 

For any further questions, please do not hesitate to get in contact with us via the form on the Contact page, and we will get back to you as soon as we possibly can.

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