The majority of football models are based on the poisson distribution and so is the DI tool - a heavily modified poisson model which allows for teams correlation and leagues specific corrections.
Historically poisson models have been predicting draw outcomes to occur less often and the error has been around 9~10%, therefrom the draw inflation - inflating/increasing the probability of draws and of course draw scores 0-0/1-1 etc.
Tutorial videos can be found here....
What is too high/low then?
That's relative. Anything between 6-16% is alright, but if you see an inflation around or below 6% that would be low. Respectively an inflation above 16% would be high. In some Italian B games, however, draw inflations have been as high as 200%, those games in which the draw trades around 1.50 at KO
Please avoid Italian games with high DI close to end of season.
Please also avoid low DI% with a strong favourite at 1.2 or below as traders don't oppose them by backing a high draw or laying a high priced underdog.
What to do when we spot a low inflation?
The inflation depends on match odds and total goals so there are a number of scenarios, mostly covered with the following:
A trade that would win in most cases with low inflation, (5% or less) - back the draw and/or lay the dog.
For high inflations, (17% or more) we do the opposite - lay the draw and/or back the dog.
Tutorial DI videos can be found on Help page as well as here.
Big advantages of the DI tool:
We would recommend the following:
• Check updates/prices from Pinny, SBO, Maxbet, and Spreads
• Check previous matched prices from Betfair as more often prices will return to previous matched prices before kick off
• Check bookies prices, what do they have, (external link in blue at top right of Auto game)
• Betfair should always be higher
• DI is low when under 6% and high when over 16%
• Check what the fave has been and is doing on Betfair graph, drifting or steaming down? IF steaming in/down for a low DI? then more often the underdog will drift rather than the draw will drop as market expects goals......Fave drifting? Then likely the draw will drop more than the dog will drift as market expects fewer goals. Keep an eye on Under 2.5 too, when this is dropping with low DI then likely the draw will drop, (and low scores too like 0-0, 1-0, 0-1, 1-1, 2-0 and 0-2.)
For a high DI? IF fave is steaming in/down then more likely the draw will drift rather than the underdog dropping. Fave drifting? Then more likely the dog will steam rather than draw will drift. Again if Under 2.5 is drifting up/out then it’s more likely market expects goals and the draw will drift up
• Stick to higher liquid games and top leagues, £40k min, low liquidity = gaps and poor prices
• Avoid low DI’s with a strong fave at 1.40 or lower as you’re going against what most traders would do
• Best low DI’s are with fairly even priced sides and Under 2.5 around 1.80 or lower, more often draw, Under 2.5 and low scores will drop before kick off
• Sometimes on low and high DI’s both can happen, low DI’s draw will drop and dog will drift. High DI’s both the draw will drift and the dog will steam down/in
• Trade small until confidence and experience comes
• Don’t let prematch and big reds go inplay as a rule as an early goal can be costly
• Options to green up at kick off or use the insurance and take inplay
For any further questions, please do not hesitate to get in contact with us via the form on the Contact page, and we will get back to you as soon as we possibly can.